Jaros and Rauh (JR, NBER, September 2026) find that the one-time billionaire tax leaves
California poorer on average.
The wealth tax is collected once, but billionaires who leave
stop paying income tax for ever.
Four of the authors' five inputs below are guesswork; the
extra litigation weight and further growth dials are this OPA's additions. Move them and
the estimate updates. This is part of an Open Policy Analysis. See more
here:
Jump to a setting
Each setting shows the exact average of the authors' formula, not a new random run. At the main setting that is The printed figure comes from one seeded run (a run started from a fixed random number, so it gives the same draws every time), and the gap is sampling error (report, Step 6). The input labels follow the report's input table. The litigation dial reads the chapter's q (PDF pp.19-20), which the code does not apply separately (note 5). The comparison explorer's litigation dial stands at one half at the JR end. That is this same half, which here comes from the revenue draw's 0 floor. The growth dial is this OPA's illustration of growth beyond the authors' r − g (note 3).
| Outcome | This setting |
|---|
1 The main estimate is the authors' own headline: the mean NPV in Jaros and Rauh, NBER (the National Bureau of Economic Research) chapter c15504, September 2026 (PDF p.1). It revises a March 2026 first version by Rauh, Jaros, Kearney, Doran and Cosso.