What the Billionaire Tax Act is worth to the state, by the JR method

Jaros and Rauh (JR, NBER, September 2026) find that the one-time billionaire tax leaves California poorer on average. The wealth tax is collected once, but billionaires who leave stop paying income tax for ever. Open Policy Analysis overview Four of the authors' five inputs below are guesswork; the extra litigation weight and further growth dials are this OPA's additions. Move them and the estimate updates. This is part of an Open Policy Analysis. See more here:

NPV = WT − f·C / (r − g). The wealth tax collected once (WT), minus the income tax lost for ever when billionaires leave: the share that leaves (f) times the yearly tax (C), divided by the discount rate net of the tax's growth (r − g). Averaged over 100,000 random draws.

The inputs

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Notes

Each setting shows the exact average of the authors' formula, not a new random run. At the main setting that is The printed figure comes from one seeded run (a run started from a fixed random number, so it gives the same draws every time), and the gap is sampling error (report, Step 6). The input labels follow the report's input table. The litigation dial reads the chapter's q (PDF pp.19-20), which the code does not apply separately (note 5). The comparison explorer's litigation dial stands at one half at the JR end. That is this same half, which here comes from the revenue draw's 0 floor. The growth dial is this OPA's illustration of growth beyond the authors' r − g (note 3).

The authors report the share below zero as the share of plausible parameter combinations with a negative net present value (PDF p.35). Their draws are independent and uniform over ranges that are themselves guesswork, so the share is not a probability that the tax loses money: it moves with those ranges, as the explorer's Rate 1.5% and Rate 4.5% settings show.

Outcomes

Mean NPV to the state, this setting against the main estimate (NBER September 2026)
Outcomes for this setting
Your setting beside the main estimate. The first row is the authors' printed mean. The others are exact averages. $B: billions of dollars, today's value.
OutcomeThis setting

1 The main estimate is the authors' own headline: the mean NPV in Jaros and Rauh, NBER (the National Bureau of Economic Research) chapter c15504, September 2026 (PDF p.1). It revises a March 2026 first version by Rauh, Jaros, Kearney, Doran and Cosso.