AI Scenario Explorer

Korinek, Jones, Sacher, Cotter and McCrory run their transformative-AI model at three settings, modest, substantial and extreme. But the model takes seven inputs, and the three scenarios move all seven in lockstep. Set them independently here: every one of the 4374 combinations is precomputed, so the 2030 outcomes appear as you click.

Two things to hold onto. Every figure is a gap against the same US economy without AI, which grows at 2 percent a year: "+8.3 percent" means 8.3 percent above that path, not a forecast. And the model splits the workforce in two: the AI-sensitive occupations, whose tasks AI is assumed to touch, and all other occupations.